52 Weeks of Cloud

Software Engineering Job Postings in 2025 And What To Do About It

Episode Summary

The software development job market faces significant headwinds in 2025, with job postings down to COVID-era levels due to rising interest rates, monopolistic big tech behavior, and looming recession risks from tariffs and government workforce reductions. While AI's impact on replacing jobs is overstated, it primarily benefits senior developers by enhancing productivity. Despite these challenges, opportunities exist for developers who focus on value creation through cost reduction, performance optimization with languages like Rust, starting solo companies leveraging cloud infrastructure and LLMs, or relocating to lower-cost regions while maintaining high living standards. Success requires focusing on critical skills that deliver measurable value rather than following technology hypes or management trends.

Episode Notes

Software Development Job Market in 2025: Challenges & Opportunities

Market Downturn Analysis

Interest Rate Impact

• Fed rates rose from ~0% to 5%, ending era of "free money" for VCs
• Job postings dropped to COVID-era levels (index ~60) from 2022 peak (index ~220)
• High rates reducing startup funding and venture capital activity

Monopoly Effects

• Big tech companies engaged in defensive hiring to block competitors
• Market distortions from trillion-dollar companies with limited competition
• Regulatory failure to break up tech monopolies contributed to hiring instability

AI Impact Reality Check

• LLMs primarily boost senior developer productivity
• No evidence of AI replacing programming jobs
• Tool comparison: Similar to Stack Overflow or programming books
• Benefits experienced developers most; requires deep domain knowledge

Economic Headwinds

• Tariff threats driving continued inflation
• Government workforce reductions adding job seekers to market
• AI investment showing weak ROI
• Growing competition in AI space (OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, etc.) reducing profit potential

Opportunities

Value-Based Skills

• Focus on cost reduction and efficiency
• Build solutions 100-1000x cheaper
• Target performance-critical systems
• Learn Rust for system optimization

Independent Business

• Solo companies more viable with:
  • LLM assistance for faster development
  • Cloud infrastructure availability
  • Ready-made payment systems
  • API composability

Geographic Strategy

• Consider lower cost US regions
• Explore international locations with high living standards
• Remote work enabling location flexibility

Market Positioning

• Consulting opportunities from over-firing
• Focus on cost-saving technologies
• Build multiple revenue streams
• Target sectors needing operational efficiency